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朝一番に勝負する

多くの方がメインレースを
中心に予想する中、
一番売り上げが
少ないであろう第1Rに
こだわってみるブログ


  • HN : perro
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« 阪神1R逃げてくれないかな馬券【perro】 | 京都1R内枠先行馬券【perro】 »

2009年01月01日

2009年お初荒尾1Rを予想してみる【perro】

あけましておめでとうございます、perroです。


日ごろ第1Rにこだわって予想していますが、
新年ということで、2009年で一番早い10:45分発送の荒尾1Rの予想をしてみようかと思います。


荒尾1R1300m戦サラ系3歳-7組3歳(ほとんど最下級のクラスのようです)は7頭立てで、その内5頭が前走(12/17日荒尾950m)で対戦しています。
着順がそれぞれ3,4,5,6,7着だったんですが、4着5着の間が950m戦にもかかわらず2.2秒差もあり、
この前走のレースで5着以下の2番テイエムブラボー,5番サチノエンデバー,7番シカゴブルースはとりあ
えずいらないということにします。


それではこの前走のレースで3着の4番ジプシーダンス、4着の3番ケンプファーが勝負になるかといいますと、この2頭が前々走(11/19日門別1200m)で対戦して、2頭とも仲良く1着馬から3.4秒差離され11着(ブービー)12着(ビリ)で、1300m戦のここはどんなもんでしょ?
ただ、賞金から考えると門別のほうがレベルが高いのかな?
この2頭の走った門別のレースの1着賞金が20万円で、このレースは15万円。
うーん、難しい。
なんで北海道の馬が荒尾で走ってるかというと、どうやら北海道が休催中はこちらにきてるようです。
レースのレベルアップと頭数確保が目的のようなので、渡航費用は荒尾側持ちでのようです。(未確認情報)


前走別路線組み(と言っていいのか?)の残りの2頭は1番グランガーと6番サンライトレディーです。
この1番グランガーも北海道から来た馬のですが、いままで8戦して1着からの着差が2.0秒以内が一度もない馬。


最後の1頭が6番サンライトレディーで、この前走が荒尾1300m戦で5着で1.0秒差。
この馬が有力かなとも思えるのですが、タイムが1:30.3でさすがに荒尾のこのクラスでもこのタイムはどうなんでしょう?


ここで3番ケンプファー、4番ジプシーダンスの前々走戦門別1200m戦のタイムですが、稍重で1:20.1でした。
そのレースでブービー、ビリなんですがこのタイムで走れば、ここならなんとかなっちゃうじゃないか?
稍重のタイムなんですが1着馬のミルクケーキのタイムから考えるそれほど良馬場に比べ早いタイムでもないようです。


で、どの馬でいくことにしたかといいますと、北海道からの2頭、3番ケンプファー、4番ジプシーダンスでいきます。


買い目は3連単(荒尾でも売ってます)で相手はさっぱり分からないので、何でもいいから人気薄が来てくださいの全流しで。
1着(3,4)-2着(3,4)-3着(全頭)、1着(3,4)-2着(全頭)-3着(3,4)の20点買いです。
各100ペソの2000ペソでいきますか。
オッズがさっぱり分かりませんが、取りガミもありそうです。


もちろん番外編なんで、当たっても外れても、いつもの収支には含めません。


なんとか初当り、ならないものか。

投稿: perro  日時: 2009年01月01日 00:59
カテゴリー:   | コメント(401)

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