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朝一番に勝負する

多くの方がメインレースを
中心に予想する中、
一番売り上げが
少ないであろう第1Rに
こだわってみるブログ


  • HN : perro
  • 自己紹介: 競馬歴だけは無駄に長い四十間近の男

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« 先週の回顧と北海道朝一藤田騎手【perro】 | 新潟1R内藤厩舎今年の初勝利馬券【perro】 »

2008年08月02日

小倉1R2歳未勝利戦攻略馬券【perro】

またまた、土曜日の1Rは3場とも2歳未勝利戦になりました。

このブログをやるまでは朝一にこんなに2歳未勝利戦が組まれてるとはまったく知りませんでした。
とりあえず、このブログの命運は2歳未勝利戦をいかに攻略するかが鍵になってます。
いままでは2歳未勝利戦の予想は手かがかりが見つけづらく、結局人気どおりの予想になってしまうことが多くて、かなりめげ気味だったのですが、そんなことじゃいかんと無理にでも積極的に狙っていこうと思ってます。ええ、無理してます。

そんなこんなで、targetで調べてみたり、いままでのレースからの印象で2歳未勝利戦の攻略法を練ってみたところ

1.牝馬よりも牡馬
2.馬体重450kg以上
3.詰めて使える(中1から2週)


という条件を満たす馬の成績が人気以上に良さそうです。

1番から3番目までの条件はいかに伸びしろが期待できるかということですね。
この条件を満たす馬は思いのほか成長している場合があるということだと思います。

しばらくは、この条件を元にして狙い馬を探していきます。

あと、2歳未勝利戦の傾向としては、なにしろ堅い決着が多いということ。
ほんとに力の差がはっきりしてることが多いですからね。
また、それと矛盾するようですが騎手による過剰人気になりやすい(ような気がします)。

その他にも調教や血統、厩舎などまだまだいろいろ切り口があるとは思いますが、それは今後の課題ということで。


土曜日の2歳未勝利戦条件クリア馬は
新潟1R
4番アイアムランボー
7番ケイアイシンドウ
函館1R
2番ゼットホーオー
小倉1R
6番テイエムテンガネ
9番マルシゲドトウ
14番カシノレオン
の6頭ですが、堅い決着が基本なんで同一レースに複数いる場合は人気上位になるであろう馬を選ぶことにして
新潟1R 4番アイアムランボー
函館1R 2番ゼットホーオー
小倉1R 9番マルシゲドトウ
の3頭。


それでは今日の勝負レース
小倉1R芝1200m九州産限定2歳未勝利戦です。

なんでこのレースにしたかといいますと初出走馬1頭除いて全馬同じ新馬戦の折り返しで力の比較がしやすい。

そして、その新馬の2着馬は10番ナンゴクシャンテは中村騎手騎乗です。

同じケイバライフ!内でブログをやってるからって買ったりしないよ、俺はそういう応援馬券とかは嫌いなの、などと勝負師を気取って思ってましたが、馬柱に中村騎手の文字を見つけたとき勝負レースが決まりました。
もちろん中村騎手には勝ってほしいですが、怪我しないでね、体が一番大事だから。 って、俺はお父さんか!でもほんと。

というわけで狙い馬は条件をクリアした9番マルシゲドトウ、相手に10番ナンゴクシャンテ


買い目は

ヒモも絞れるここは3連単のみで。

9番10番2頭軸の相手に前走上位馬の2番3番7番、前走逃げた8番、初出走の4番の5頭のマルチ30点を各100ペソで。

1着(10)-2着(9)-3着(2,3,4,7,8)
1着(10)-2着(2,3,4,7,8)-3着(9)
の10点を追加で各200ペソ。
合わせて5000ペソで。

投稿: perro  日時: 2008年08月02日 01:23
カテゴリー:   | コメント(255)

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