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« 秋華賞 結果【たかし】 | しまった!【たかし】 »

2008年10月25日

菊花賞 予想【たかし】

ちょっと早めだが、明日は朝から出かけてしまうので、本日中に馬券を買ってしまおうとこんな時間にエントリー。

で、1週間、「俺の馬」ことスマイルジャックの扱いをどうするか考えた。

秋華賞のブラックエンブレムの教訓を生かし最後まで面倒を見るべきか、それともそういった感情論はバッサリと切り捨てるべきか。

で、切り捨てようかなと。(あっさり)

ブラックエンブレムと違ってダービーでは本命としなかったわけで、その時点でもう切り捨ててしまっているわけだし。
ていうか、それを言うならダービーで本命にしたマイネルチャールズはどうするんだと。
いやいや、マイネルチャールズは札幌記念で「もう買わない」と宣言してしまったので買えないし。

しかし、ディープスカイ、ブラックシェルがいないので必然的にスマイルジャックが本命候補に浮上するということはあるかもしれない。
人気が出そうなオウケンブルースリは皆さんが口にするように、重賞未連対の実績では積極的に買いという訳にはいかないし。
セントライト記念のダイワワイルドボアは、マツリダゴッホ的な中山スペシャルな感じがしないでもないし。

ということで、俺指数に聞いてみよう。

馬番馬名指数順位
14オウケンブルースリ3.621
2ノットアローン3.552
11ミッキーチアフル3.503
13シゲルフセルト3.334
8スマートギア3.325
9マイネルチャールズ3.256
17ダイシンプラン3.247
18ダイワワイルドボア3.247
3アグネススターチ3.179
4メイショウクオリア3.1510
7ドットコム3.1510
12ヤマニンキングリー3.1510
10スマイルジャック3.1113
6ロードアリエス3.0814
16ホワイトピルグリム3.0814
1フローテーション2.9316
5ナムラクレセント2.9217
15ベンチャーナイン2.5518

1位のオウケンブルースリはわかるが、2,3位がノットアローン、ミッキーチアフルとは、想定外の結果でちょっとビックリした。
指数も一応3.5を超えているのでそれなりに信頼していいということになるのだが、本当に大丈夫か?>指数を出した俺

ということで、一応指数を尊重して印は以下の通り。

◎ スマイルジャック
俺の馬である。やっぱり外すわけにはいかないのである。

○ オウケンブルースリ
ケイバライフ的には危険な人気馬の扱いだが、他にこれといった馬もいないし。

▲ ノットアローン
指数的には騎手や厩舎の実績や、レースでの安定感が評価されたらしい。

△ ミッキーチアフル
指数的に突出したところは無いものの平均的に高評価。

△ フローテーション
母父のリアルシャダイの血に賭けてみたい、というのはタテマエでホンネはパツキン好きなだけ。

いかにも当たらなそうな予想であるので、馬券は広めに。
◎○▲△の3連複BOX!(弱し)
それと、やっぱり◎スマイルジャックから印の馬達への馬連流し!


それから師匠馬券は

9→14→10
10→14→9
14→9→10
8→3→14
10→14→3
10→14→5
8→14→9
5→14
12→14

珍しく馬単に手を出してきた。
そしてオウケンブルースリは2着と読んだらしい。


ついでに富士Sの予想を印だけ。

◎ リザーブカード
東京コースが合いそう。

○ エイシンドーバー
なんといっても安田記念3着。

▲ レオマイスター
3歳と古馬の実力差を測るのに最適。

△ サイレントプライド
ここをすんなり勝つようならマイルCSでも重い印を付けてあげる。


投稿: たかし  日時: 2008年10月25日 14:23
カテゴリー: 予想と結果  | コメント(381)

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